All our desi actors and directors always wistfully claim that their life's ambition is to win an Oscar. Having watched the award winning movies year after year, the Oscars seem rather predictable. Certain genres and themes get rewarded repeatedly. Here are some -
1a) The dysfunctional but lovable protagonists - They are usually nutty, but with hearts of gold, and their spirit always triumphs. Examples? American Beauty, Forrest Gump
1b) The dysfunctional protagonists in tragic circumstances - same as the above, but these movies are a lot more serious. Ofcourse, for the movie to win an Oscar, hope HAS to triumph. Example? Crash
2) The achiever - They are kinda nutty, almost loserish, but overcome all odds and win. Its the message of hope all the way. Examples? Million dollar baby, A beautiful mind.
3) The magnum opus -These movies are big business to Hollywood. If everyone made low key small budget movies, Hollywood would go bankrupt. So, every now and then, the magnum opuses get rewarded big time. Examples ? Titanic, Lord of the rings, and Gladiator. Though i suspect the award for LOTR was more a case of enough already. And hey, dont forget the friggin hope
4) The offbeat stuff - Movies like Chicago, and Shakespeare in Love somehow struck gold.
5) Patriotic/War hero/Holocaust/Historical movies - Totally obvious reasons. Braveheart, Schindler's list, Life is beautiful, Gandhi etc...I actually dont have anything cutting to say about this genre. Some of these movies were really deserving.
Tomorrow's best picture nominees are - Babel, The departed, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little miss sunshine, and The queen. Applying the above yardsticks, here are my 2 cents

The movie desperately tries to fit into 1b in the hopes of making an Oscar, but the scriptwriters forgot the all important Hope factor, so, sorry no.

I didnt get this movie - especially the whambam ending with everyone shooting each other faster than you could say "huh? WTF?". Anyway, everybody else did get this movie, plus it fits into category 3. So, a pretty serious contender i would say.

Hollywood loves topical films, and what could be more topical than soliders valiantly fighting a losing battle? Plus Clint Eastwood is an old hollywood favorite. This movie fits like a glove into category 5, so its a very serious contender.
The Queen
Probably a type 1b, I have not watched this movie. I cannot imagine any compelling reason for it to win the best picture

Little miss sunshine
This movie is surprisingly cute, 1a all the way. It is a sunshine filled version of American Beauty, with the hope factor laid on super thick. However, it's finale with the little girl performing a kinky number may just be too much for the majority of the academy that likes good clean fun. So, while this may be a big favorite, it will probably not win.
So the verdict? In the tussle between The departed and Letters from Iwo Jima, the former may just win, because the academy has not given Martin Scorcese an oscar yet, and they may believe that it is about time.
(pictures source: www.rottentomatoes.com)